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Prediction for CME (2024-09-03T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-03T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33152/-1
CME Note: Bright CME first seen in the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-09-03T20:12Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. This event is partially obscured in STEREO A by a data gap from 03/14:38Z to 03/22:53Z. The source of this CME is an area of dimming spanning from N25E30 to N10E03 but is centered around N10E20. Although a majority of the dimming appears to be more central, there are field lines that appear to open more towards the NE as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 211.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-06T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33155/1
Model Inputs:
2024-09-03T20:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=24.0, Speed=780.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2024-09-04T00:58Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-06T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-06T23:04Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-05T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240904_005800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-09-04T00:28Z

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